As the crispness of fall begins to settle in the air, you might notice something else creeping up — grocery prices. While seasonal favorites like pumpkin muffins and cranberry salads are a comforting part of fall traditions, the rising cost of these dishes is becoming harder to ignore. The culprit behind this shift is no longer just inflation — climate change is increasingly at the root of the price hikes we’re seeing on grocery shelves.
From droughts to floods, the erratic weather patterns tied to climate change are impacting agriculture across the board, driving up costs for farmers and consumers alike. The changing climate is reshaping not just our environment but also our food systems — and it’s starting to hit home at our dinner tables.
Extreme weather is pushing up farming costs
In recent years, farmers have faced growing challenges as weather patterns become more unpredictable. Droughts in the Midwest, unseasonal frost in the Northeast and heat waves across the country have all contributed to lower crop yields, making it harder to grow staple ingredients like pumpkins, cranberries and squash.
To cope with these conditions, farmers have had to invest in costly irrigation systems and climate control measures just to maintain their crops. These rising costs are passed down to consumers, contributing to increased grocery bills. This price hike is evident in the cost of making comforting fall dishes like pumpkin soup or the fan-favorite pumpkin spice latte, once a simple, affordable favorite, are now a more expensive indulgence. According to Money, the price of a pumpkin spice latte at Starbucks has gone up almost 20%, from $5.65 in 2020 to $6.50 today.
Supply chain disruptions make it worse
It’s not just farming costs that are on the rise. Getting food from the field to the table has become increasingly difficult. Climate-related events such as floods and hurricanes are disrupting the global food supply chain, leading to delays in transportation and distribution.
In 2023 and 2024, hurricanes and severe flooding along the Gulf Coast and in Florida impacted agricultural production and delayed transportation. Florida, a major agricultural state, suffered crop damage and infrastructure loss due to Hurricane Idalia in 2023 and Hurricane Debby in 2024, making it harder for seasonal products to reach markets in time. Transportation costs have also risen, partly due to these natural disasters and disruptions, which contribute to the increasing price of fall produce across the country.
Shifts in growing seasons impact availability
The growing seasons we rely on for fall ingredients are being disrupted as well. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency, growing seasons in many parts of the U.S. have lengthened by about two weeks over the past few decades due to rising temperatures. This can cause misalignment between when crops are ready to harvest and when they’re most in demand.
For crops like pumpkins and acorn squash, longer and hotter growing seasons can result in early maturation or crop damage due to pests and disease. Farmers may not be able to bring their crops to market during peak demand periods, which leads to higher prices and reduced availability for consumers.
The economic impact on your grocery bill
All of these factors — rising farming costs, supply chain disruptions and shifting growing seasons — are contributing to higher grocery prices. According to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, though the rate of increase is decelerating, food prices are expected to rise by around 2.8% in 2024.
For consumers, this means traditional fall dishes like stuffed acorn squash or pumpkin pies are becoming more expensive. Home cooks are even being forced to rethink their Thanksgiving menus this year. Michelle Price, a home cook and food blogger at Honest and Truly says, “We have opted for a rotisserie chicken instead of turkey, paired with a variety of roasted vegetables like Brussels sprouts, green beans and sweet potatoes. This alternative is more affordable, healthier and results in a meal my family enjoys more, with fewer leftovers going to waste!”
How you can adapt to raising prices
While the challenges are real, there are ways to adapt and still enjoy your favorite fall dishes. One of the best strategies is to source ingredients locally, which helps minimize the impact of transportation disruptions and ensures that you’re getting fresher produce. Farmers’ markets are an excellent way to find seasonal fruits and vegetables, often at lower prices than in grocery stores, where out-of-season imports often drive prices higher. Buying in bulk and preserving seasonal items — through canning or freezing — lets you enjoy fall produce year round without paying premium prices. You can freeze just about anything, from avocados to pumpkin purees.
Meal planning is also key to reducing waste. Plan your weekly menu around what’s in season or on sale, and get creative with leftovers to make soups, sauces or broths. Growing your own vegetables or joining a Community Supported Agriculture program can also help lower costs while supporting sustainable farming. Finally, keep an eye out for discounts on imperfect produce or shop during store sales. These strategies can keep your grocery bill down while allowing you to enjoy the flavors of fall.
A changing fall feast
As climate change continues to reshape our world, its impact on agriculture is becoming increasingly clear — and personal. The rising cost of fall dishes is a reminder that our food systems are deeply connected to the environment. But while the challenges are significant, there are steps we can take to adapt and protect the traditions we hold dear.
By supporting local farmers, making thoughtful purchasing decisions and advocating for sustainable agricultural practices, we can help mitigate the impact of climate change on our food supply. The fall feast, as we know it, may be changing, but with the right choices, we can ensure that these beloved dishes remain a part of our celebrations for generations to come.
Shruthi Baskaran-Makanju is a food and travel writer and a global food systems expert based in Seattle. She has lived in or traveled extensively to over 60 countries, and shares stories and recipes inspired by those travels on Urban Farmie.